Emerging Technology Cost Estimating: When There's No History to Build From

How to Estimate Capital Costs for Emerging Technologies Without Historical Cost Data | ROMAN Consulting Group

Traditional equipment-factored estimating depends on historical cost relationships. But what happens when a project includes first-of-a-kind equipment with no historical benchmark? Emerging technologies such as carbon capture, hydrogen, advanced manufacturing, and other innovative processes require a different estimating approach.

Drawing on Jordan Beckel's 2026 AACE International paper, this article explains why emerging technology cost estimating requires separating conventional equipment from truly new technology and applying the appropriate estimating methodology to each. Equipment with proven historical data can be estimated using established equipment factors, while emerging equipment should be developed using bottom-up, component-level estimating supported by documented engineering assumptions rather than unsupported exclusions.

Two Methods, One Estimate: Demonstrates how conventional equipment is estimated using AACE RP 59R-10 equipment-factored methods while emerging equipment requires bottom-up estimating, with both approaches combining into a single Bare Erected Cost before progressing to Total Installed Cost.

The article highlights several practical principles for estimating emerging technologies:

• Separate emerging equipment from conventional equipment before selecting the estimating methodology.

• Use bottom-up estimating when no historical installed-cost relationship exists.

• Replace excluded scope with documented engineering assumptions that can be refined as design matures.

• Recognize that equipment factors apply only within the equipment envelope; site infrastructure, buildings, pipe racks, engineering, owner's costs, commissioning, and escalation must be estimated separately.

• Focus estimate reviews on how each cost was developed, not simply on the final project total.

Understanding where historical factors apply versus where they do not helps improve estimate transparency, communicate uncertainty more effectively, and strengthen confidence in early capital investment decisions.

At ROMAN Consulting Group, we help owners, developers, and EPC contractors strengthen early-phase estimates through independent estimate reviews, Basis of Estimate (BoE) development, estimate methodology validation, and front-end estimating support. Our reviews confirm that estimating methods align with project definition, equipment maturity, and available cost data before major capital commitments are made.

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