When to Start Risk Analysis in Front End Loading (FEL/FEP)
- Roger Farish
- Sep 1, 2025
- 2 min read
Updated: Dec 1, 2025
Why Early Risk Integration Strengthens Front-End Decision Quality | ROMAN Consulting Group
The front end of a project is where the greatest influence lies.
Decisions made early shape cost, schedule, and long-term performance, yet many teams still wait until late design or execution to begin risk analysis, when changes are costly and flexibility is limited.
True front end loading (FEL) or front end planning (FEP) integrates risk analysis from the very beginning. The level of detail evolves as the project advances, but its foundation is built in the earliest concept stages.
FEL Risk Integration Overview: Visualizing how decision analytics and risk analysis mature through FEL 1–3, from feasibility to FEED.
FEL 1 – Feasibility and Concept Selection: Use early decision analytics to compare options and test business cases. An early independent estimate review helps validate assumptions behind Class 5 or 4 estimates before advancing.
FEL 2 – Scope Development: Conduct structured risk workshops and assess scope maturity using the Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI). Establish a preliminary risk register and begin mitigation planning.
FEL 3 – Front-End Engineering Design (FEED): Finalize the investment decision with risk-adjusted economics and refined should-cost estimating. Apply quantitative tools such as Monte Carlo simulation to set realistic cost and schedule confidence levels.
Starting risk analysis early delivers tangible benefits: maximum influence over outcomes, fewer execution surprises, stronger data-driven decisions, and improved cost and schedule certainty. Many of the pitfalls noted in Top 5 Estimating Mistakes trace back to insufficient early risk integration.
At ROMAN Consulting Group, we help teams integrate risk analysis early in FEL by facilitating structured risk workshops, developing qualitative and quantitative analyses, and aligning contingency with scope maturity and project objectives. Our approach strengthens early decision-making by making uncertainty visible and ensuring cost and schedule risks are addressed before they become embedded in the baseline.
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